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Preseason Performance: How It Impacts Fantasy Football
Every year, the preseason gives us a glimpse of the new NFL season. However, because the games don’t mean much, it can be very difficult to predict regular season performance based on preseason stats. So, what should you look for when making notes about the fantasy players you want?
First Focus: Injuries
Injuries can doom any fantasy team (just ask anyone who paid over $200 for Shaun Alexander last year). One of the biggest impacts of the preseason is of course season ending injuries, or other injuries that affect player performance even when they don’t keep a player from the field.
RB’s: watch out for toe and foot injuries, because RB’s get a bit more tentative hitting the hole and often lose some explosiveness out of the backfield. Shoulder separations can have similar results, depending on severity. These types of injuries sap effectiveness, and ultimately that translates to fewer yards and touchdowns for your team.
QB’s: watch out for rotator cuff problems. An injury to the rotator cuff can cause weak throws, increasing the number of incompletions and interceptions. For a quarterback coming off an injury from the year before, watch for decreased mobility, especially if they have spent a lot of games on IR. Torn ligaments take a long time to heal, and remember the situation with Daunte Culpepper last year if you plan on drafting a player like McNabb, whose ACL tear occurred later in the season than Culpepper’s. McNabb claims he can be a top QB at 75% health, but he may be underestimating the psychological effect of having a weak knee when scrambling and trying to make throws.
WR’s: look for hamstring problems or hand injuries, which can lead to drops. A nagging injury like a strained hamstring can make it difficult for a player to make the same impact he normally would. Keep an eye on whether the problem seems like it is improving or worsening, because some players, like TO last year, can still have good fantasy seasons. However, you may notice that most of TO’s production came later in the season last year, so if you do want to draft a receiver with a hamstring injury, prepare to be patient.
OL: The offensive line makes a huge impact on offensive statistics. They make holes for running backs, and create time for quarterbacks and receivers. If a team is having trouble finding healthy linemen, stay away from their offensive players. Troubles on offense can also make a defense more susceptible to giving up points, so it can affect the DEF position as well.
Second Focus: Statistics
Everyone knows that preseason statistics don’t reflect regular season performance because the top starters usually don’t play much of the game. Offenses are typically uncreative and don’t reveal much of the playbook. How can you judge performance, then?
First of all, keep an eye on who is getting the carries once the primary running back leaves the game. In the first game or two, coaches and front offices want to see what they have, so they’ll try out several guys to see who to keep and who to let go. Most of the time, these guys won’t have much of a fantasy impact, but for rookies or the occasional breakout star, it will be the first chance to see what they can do.
Quarterbacks are good to watch during this time, because you can see how well they adapt to new receivers and whether they can put together a cohesive drive. If a QB consistently fails to get it done in the preseason, he’s not going to magically improve for the regular season.
The preseason can also showcase wide receivers who have honed their game in the offseason. Just as an example, T.J. Houshmandzadeh worked hard over the summer to improve his speed and explosiveness, and it will help him to create mismatches on offense since the top DB will already be guarding Chad Johnson. The preseason allows you to see exactly how much he has improved, which helps determine an appropriate round to draft him or how much to pay in an auction league.
If your league has a point system that favors the return game, the preseason is a good place to spot good special teams players because they will have a chance to get on the field more often to sub for starters.
Preseason statistics are misleading, because starters are not playing as much and defensive consistency is not the same – especially in the second half. Don’t get excited about a certain player if he has a good game, unless there is a clear indication he will be a starter. Pay more attention to first quarter performance than the rest of the game.
Third Focus: Overall Team Performance
Most of the time, a team’s preseason record is no indication of how they will do. However, teams that lose every game, especially if they are not close, are not going to be good places to draft players. Last year, Washington had a horrible preseason, and though some ESPN pundits (namely Salisbury) predicted a return to the playoffs, their season was predictably bad. I prefer to stay away from players on teams that have trouble scoring for that reason, and the preseason can offer an indication of which teams will truly be stinkers.
Conclusion
Though you can’t take the preseason at face value, there is a lot of useful information that can help you avoid fantasy busts. That’s really what the preseason is best for: figuring out who not to pick. As long as you keep updated on injuries and possible surprises, Dominate Your League’s Draft Pick Analyzer is a great tool to make your selections and decide how much to pay for them.
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