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Every year, the NFL gets an infusion of young talent. These guys may or may not make an immediate impact on their teams, depending on a number of factors.
Running Backs
1. How high was he drafted? If you pick a running back who was drafted in the first round, you are guaranteed some mid-level production unless he gets hurt or holds out of camp and misses out on learning the offense.
2. Who is his competition? Guys like Larry Johnson had to wait a couple of seasons before he had his chance to make an impact due to Priest Holmes being a top 5 back in the prime of his career. On the other hand, if he comes in as a starter from day one, you should have him no less than your second back on your team if you don't have LT and LJ as your starters already.
3. How good is his offensive line? This goes with quarterbacks too, if the offensive line is weak, then a rookie running back who starts is going to have an extremely tough season so be aware of the o-line's status.
Quarterbacks
1. How high was he drafted? If you pick up a rookie quarterback in your draft, it is the same risk that a real NFL team takes on one. You can count on any quarterback who gets picked in the top 10 to see the field significantly as a rookie. This doesn't mean he will produce a lot of positive numbers though. Only start a rookie QB if you have no choice.
2. What kind of offense is he playing in? A rookie NFL quarterback in a pass happy offense is usually a recipe for a lot of interceptions. Most coaches don't put rookies in this kind of situation though, so if a rookie unexpectedly falls into a starting role look for them to limit the offense, thus making chances for big numbers real small. If you have a rookie who is starting in a run-first offense, he won't have an opportunity to make a lot of mistakes and he will usually have pretty efficient output.
Wide Receivers
1. What will his role be in the offense? You have to expect a receiver drafted in the first round to get a lot of opportunities, so don't be too leery about drafting one in your fantasy league. Some receivers drafted in later rounds get chances to produce on kick/punt returns also.
2. Who is throwing him the ball? A receiver is nothing without a capable guy under center. Quarterback situations like Miami and Green Bay are examples of teams with receivers that you should probably stay away from this season. Sorry Donald Driver fans.
Conclusion
Keep an eye on what rookie players you are interested in are doing in camp. Some guys do great in camp but disappoint during the season, and some do great in camp AND in the season. Preseason games are a great time to get a look at rookie progress also. There is always enough resources out there to make informed fantasy football decisions.
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