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Trade
Evaluation and Analysis |
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THE ART OF THE TRADE PROPOSAL
Offering a trade is a bit of an art form. Getting the best of a
trade scenario usually involves using a little salesmanship on another
owner as they will typically be hesitant to part with their valued
players. This can be overcome by using some time tested techniques
which we will review in this article. They include:
Your Strength vs Their Weakness
The 2 for 1
Preying on the New Guy
Shaking Things Up
Include the Backup Player
Play the Stock Market
Badgering the Opponent
YOUR STRENGTH VS. THEIR WEAKNESS
Through the process of drafting, some teams have a position of
strength and a position of weakness (unless they have used the Draft
Pick Analyzer). You should pay special attention to
what your position of strength is because that will allow you to
upgrade at another position and find an acceptable opponent who
will be most apt to trade with you. Quite simply, if you have several
strong RBs (never a bad thing) and there is an owner in your league
that is struggling to fill his lineup with viable RB starters, try
to work out something with him. He may be willing to part with more
to upgrade his position of weakness due to his desperate situation.
Use this to your advantage by pointing out to him that his RB position
needs some help and you'd be willing to part with one of your RBs
if he'd be interested. The weaker his RB position is, the better
your chance of taking advantage of his desperation. Watch this really
closely when there are season ending injuries that decimate a fantasy
team. With those owners team depth becomes an immediate concern.
This scenario also works well with "The 2 for 1".
THE 2 FOR 1
As you will find by spending some time with our Fantasy
Football Tools, acquiring players that have high positive
+/- values is critical to Fantasy Football success.
A nice trick to upgrade without giving up the farm in return is
to do a 2 for 1 trade. What this means is giving up 2 "good"
quality players for one "excellent" player. This technique
can be used in 3 for 2, 4 for 3, etc combinations as well. The point
is that one "excellent" player is harder to find and more
valuable than two "good" players. The math works out pretty
simple, if I want to acquire Chad Johnson (+/- of 3.5), I might
offer Anquan Boldin (+/- of 1.2) and Donte Stallworth (+/- of 0.75).
If you can get away with trading one "good" starter and
one "good" bench player for one "excellent"
starter, you will make out like a bandit. Even if you have to trade
two "good" starters to upgrade you may still have a positive
net effect on your team's PPG.
PREYING ON THE NEW GUY
Call it rookie hazing if you want. New guys just simply don't typically
have a good grasp on a league's scoring system and are normally
not good at evaluating trades in a new system (Not subscribers to
Dominate Your League!!!). The more abnormal a league's scoring system,
the more apt you are to find a new guy that is a bit out of his
league. This is particularly true if the owner is new to fantasy
football. As the years have gone on, this has become increasingly
more difficult to dupe a rookie because of the advent of the 50,000
Fantasy Football magazines sold in the grocery
store (which are cooincidentally for Fantasy Football novices).
SHAKING THINGS UP
During the midpoint of every Fantasy Football season
there is undoubtedly a few teams that are stuggling to reach their
"on paper" potential. If you want to get something going
with one of these teams, make the following suggestion. Tell them
that you are a little bored with your team and you'd like to "shake
things up a bit." Then ask them if they'd be interested in
making a trade to shake up their squad too. Sometimes a owner just
gets to the point where they are ready to take a chance to make
the playoff push. Make them realize that they don't have a top caliber
team so they better make something happen. Be their buddy and help
them and improve your team in the process.
INCLUDE THE BACKUP PLAYER
A nice way of adding to a trade offer without giving up too much
is to add a backup player for a player that the opposing team already
has on their squad. This is almost always an attractive feature
to a trade since everybody is concerned about injuries ruining their
season. If you are doing a 2 for 2 or another even trade, this makes
a nice way to balance out the trade. Specifically targeting a team
that matches up with your backup players is a good strategy for
evaluating who to trade with.
PLAY THE STOCK MARKET
Think of the Fantasy Football season as a day
at the NYSE. Players will undoubtedly gain or lose value as the
season progresses depending on their performance, matchups, and
situations within their teams. The message here is "Buy Low...Sell
High". If you have Fred Taylor and he begins the season putting
up Ladanian Tomlinson-like numbers, trade him while you can. You
know that eventually he will slow down (or get hurt knowing Fred)
and his perceived value will decrease, leaving you stuck with an
average to below-average RB for the rest of the season. On the ohter
hand, when a quality player starts off slow target him for a trade.
If Torry Holt were to average 60 yards/game for the first three
games this year, go after him! Sometimes a player struggles due
to a few bad matchups early in the season or a nagging injury. Pay
close attention to these players and jump on the opportunity when
they struggle. BUY LOW...SELL HIGH
BADGERING THE OPPONENT
When all else fails, ask, ask, and keep asking your opponents about
perspective trades. A team isn't always receptive to your offers
but if you ask enough, they might just make a trade with you to
get you to leave them alone. Being persistant can pay off. The ultimate
goal is to win and in trade negotiations, most owners don't have
the patience to stand their ground forever, particularly if they
are not performing well.
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