Trade Evaluation and Analysis

 

FUNDAMENTALS OVERVIEW

 

Trading is a great way for you to improve your team after the draft. Trades can accomplish you improving yoru team's performce, filling a positional need, or allowing you to fill in during your player's bye weeks. There is some number crunching that goes along with offering or evaluating a trade. You need to make sure that the trade will help your team. The points concept is pretty straightforward. The other areas will need a bit more of description.

 

POINTS PER GAME EVALUATION

 

When offering a trade or evaluating a proposed trade, the concept is simlpe in regards to PPG. You want to get more in return than you are giving up. Easy to comprehend, right? Where it gets a little complex is when you have more than two players involved in the trade or are trading players that play different positions and therefore have different positional weights that affect their relative value. For example. If Rudi Johnson gets 9 ppg and Matt Stover gets 9 ppg, this trade should never happen because the RB positional weight is more than the RB positional weight. The value that you are truly looking for is how much better (or worse) a player is than his respective peers at his own position. This is represented by the +/- value in our products (including the Cheat Sheets and Draft Pick Analyzer). Once you have assigned this value for all of the players involved in the trade, you simply add up each player's +/- value for each team and and subtract the other team's +/- total from your team's +/- total. A positive value means that you are giving up too much and should NOT make the trade. A negative value means that you are receiving more back than you are giving up and SHOULD make the trade. A value of "0" means that the trade is even from a PPG standpoint. The futher the +/- total value varies from "0", the more lopsided the trade is. See the table below for an example. in this example, "Your Team" is giving up too much and should NOT make the trade (strictly based on PPG).

 

Your Team

Opposing Team

Pos

 Player

+/-

Pos

 Player

+/-

QB

 Brett Favre

4.2

QB

 Daunte Culpepper

6.8

TE

 Antonio Gates

6.5

WR

 Derrick Mason

2.1

RB

 Carnell Williams

-0.5

RB

 T.J. Duckett

-1.3

 Total +/- Value

10.2

 Total +/- Value

7.6

(Your Team's Total +/-) - (Opposing Team's +/-) = 2.6

 

FILLING A POSITIONAL NEED ANALYSIS

 

When analyzing a trade, your team needs and those needs of the opposing team are relvant factors. Certain positions are naturally more important due to the setup of your league and the number of starters at those positions. Sometimes, this will create an imbalance in your team's lineup and you'll need to acquire a certain positon to make your team most efficient. Try to examine your team's strengths and see where you can give up a little bit at a certain position. Then try to find an owner in your league that needs help at that position. If an owner knows that they have a weak area in their team, they will be more apt to trade for your position of strength than a team with adequate players at that position. When receiving a trade offer, think of your need positions as a consideration in the trade evaluation but do not have a fire sale just to acquire a certain position. Be smart and use the +/- calculations as a basis of a good trade. use the consideration of positional need as a part of the decision making process and not the entire part of the decision.

 

CONSIDERATIONS FOR BYE WEEKS

 

It is always a trick to balance your lineup and keep a strong team through the bye week portion of your schedule. If you have the opportunity when making a trade, look at the player's bye weeks and try to trade players that have UPCOMING bye weeks for players that have ALREADY had their bye weeks. This will allow you to basically skip having a bye week for each time you make this happen. It is pretty subtle and most owners don't even consider it when looking at trade offers. Note however, that this is not something that you should base the entire trade on. Don't go for a lesser player because he will allow you to skip a bye week. Just make it part of your decision making process.

 


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